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Mississippi State at Alabama odds, picks and prediction

Joe Williams
Sportsbook Wire

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3, 1-3 SEC) and Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0, 5-0) meet at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday (on ESPN). Below, we analyze the Mississippi State-Alabama college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The Crimson Tide are ranked 2nd in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Mississippi State at Alabama: Betting odds and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line : Mississippi State +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400) | Alabama -5000 (bet $5000 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS : Mississippi State +31.5 (-115) | Alabama -31.5 (-106)
  • Over/Under : 63.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)

Mississippi State at Alabama: Three things to know

  1. The Bulldogs opened with that impressive and shocking 44-34 upset at LSU on Sept. 26 as 14.5-point underdogs, and it appeared the "Air Raid" offense of HC Mike Leach was going to make a lot of noise. But they have been grounded since, totaling just 30 points over the past three games, going 0-3 SU/ATS with three Under results.
  2. For Alabama, it's the same as it ever was. All five of the Crimson Tide's five victories are by at least 15 points, and they own a 4-1 O/U record. The only game which didn't go Over was last week's 48-17 shellacking of Tennessee, cashing just Under the 67 point line.
  3. The Bulldogs have had trouble with the Crimson Tide over the years, going 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, and 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Tuscaloosa. The Under is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings in 'Bama, and 10-2-1 in the previous 13 meetings overall.

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Mississippi State at Alabama: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

Alabama 54, Mississippi State 20

Money line (ML)

AVOID. There is just no way you can spend $50 for every $1 earned, and that's what you're doing when backing Alabama (-5000) on the money line.

Against the spread (ATS)

ALABAMA ( -31.5, -106) is actually worth a play here, as Mississippi State has really struggled to put up points lately. If you would have told me the Bulldogs would be getting this many points after the upset of LSU, I would have jumped all over it. But the past three games have shown that Leach's team is still a work in progress. After Alabama only beat Mississippi 63-48 on Oct. 10, I would also have taken the Bulldogs in this one, as the Tide's defense was shoddy early on. But they're rounding into championship form.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 63.5 ( -115) is a great play, as there is an outside chance the Crimson Tide could take care of this on their own. The Bulldogs have averaged just 10.0 PPG over their last three outings, so there is a bit of risk here. But Alabama is averaging 48.3 PPG through five games, third-best in the nation, and MSU won't need to contribute much to make this a winning ticket.

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